Geopolitics

Israel x Iran continues through December 15?

44% say yes

Down 1 point today.

Decided by major news reports, by December 15, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 44¢ means about a 44% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (December 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: A state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST).

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.44%
What has to happen
A state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST).
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.56%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by December 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass.

Price chart

Yes 44%No 56%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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The details

Rule note: needs confirmed reportsNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Low (15/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: A single outlet’s breaking report does not settle Yes; it needs several sources agreeing or official confirmation. Deadline: Tue, Dec 15, 2026, 11:59 PM IRST.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran…”
“If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass.”
“Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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