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Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus · End date Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders give Yes about 1% on “Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31”.

It dipped 2 points today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now.

Low surprise risk: the named source’s announcement settles it.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

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The details

Rule note: the announcement countsNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Low (15/100)
Announced

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  • Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline). If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

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Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus
Fine-print risk: Low (15/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Low 15
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed) · https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/diverted-flydubai-flight-israel-was-not-hijacking-incident-israeli-prime-2026-09-30/
2.
Deadline and time zone
Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
AnnouncedA qualifying official announcement is enough. Rule text: "…representative of the Israeli national government, publicly announces that Iran or its affiliated groups deliberately caused this…"
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
A general statement that it was conducted by an Iranian proxy will also qualify, even if no group is named. Once a qualifying announcement has been made, no subsequent walkback or retraction will be relevant for purposes of this market.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback; Polymarket disputes go to the UMA Optimistic Oracle while Kalshi follows CFTC-filed contract terms.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

On September 30, 2026, FlyDubai flight FZ1073 from Dubai to Tel Aviv diverted to Saudi Arabia following an incident in the cockpit in which the co-pilot allegedly stabbed the captain. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/diverted-flydubai-flight-israel-was-not-hijacking-incident-israeli-prime-2026-09-30/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli national government, or an authorized representative of the Israeli national government, publicly announces that Iran or its affiliated groups deliberately caused this incident, by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public announcement refers to an on-the-record statement issued by the Israeli national government or by its authorized representatives acting in an official capacity on behalf of the Israeli national government. A statement or press release issued by the Israeli national government or any of its agencies will qualify. A Prime Minister or Cabinet Minister’s public statements will always be considered to be issued on-the-record in a capacity representing the Israeli national government for purposes of this market. A statement from a lawmaker or other government official speaking in their own capacity or on behalf of a party not in government will not alone qualify. For purposes of this market, an affiliated group of Iran is: any organization directly controlled by Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Houthis ("Ansar Allah"), Kata'ib Hezbollah, Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, Badr Organization, and Harakat al-Nujaba. An unlisted group will only qualify if the Israeli claim itself, or accompanying statements or releases, specifies that the group is a proxy of or otherwise is controlled or directed by Iran. A general statement that it was conducted by an Iranian proxy will also qualify, even if no group is named. Such a statement will be considered to claim that Iran or its affiliated groups deliberately caused the incident if it explicitly claims that Iran or an affiliated group ordered, carried out, planned, or otherwise directly aided or coordinated the incident. Statements that attribute only inspiration or ideological influence (e.g., "this would not have happened if Iran didn't radicalize terrorists," "the co-pilot was influenced by Hamas' ideas") will not qualify. Once a qualifying announcement has been made, no subsequent walkback or retraction will be relevant for purposes of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli national government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?: resolution rules & settlement traps · MarketWeaver