Geopolitics

Iran Nuke before 2027?

4% say yes

Up 1 point today.

Decided by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM , under the rules.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 4¢ means about a 4% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.4%
What has to happen
Credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.96%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart

Yes 4%No 96%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenNo source named

Fine-print risk

Medium (35/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on No resolution source named in the rules text. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

No resolution source named in the rules

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 3 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 4 times the usual hourly amount.
28m ago
Trading rose to about 6 times the usual hourly amount.
58m ago
Trading rose to about 5 times the usual hourly amount.
1h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran…”
“Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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