Geopolitics
Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?
24% say yes
Down 2 points today.
Decided by official government/military statements plus a credible reporting, by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM .
Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 24¢ means about a 24% chance.
Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.
The short version
If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Possible results
YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.24%
What has to happen
Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.76%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The one trap
A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”).
See all fine print
- Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz, the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace, and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in Iran.
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