Other

Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by November 30?

21% say yes

Down 29 points today.

Decided by major news reports, by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 21¢ means about a 21% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: Howard Lutnick ceases to be the US Secretary of Commerce for any period of time between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.21%
What has to happen
Howard Lutnick ceases to be the US Secretary of Commerce for any period of time between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.79%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart

Yes 21%No 79%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price rose 3.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 21.5¢ to 25¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Source: Credible-reporting consensus7h ago
The price rose 3.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 15.5¢ to 19¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Source: Credible-reporting consensus10h ago
The price fell 5.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 21¢ to 16¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Source: Credible-reporting consensus10h ago
The price fell 4.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 25.5¢ to 21.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Source: Credible-reporting consensus13h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: needs formal signingNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Medium (35/100)

settles on the date it takes effect

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Press announcements or committee votes do not settle Yes; formal signing or enactment before the deadline is required. Deadline: Mon, Nov 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 3 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 8 times the usual hourly amount.
9h ago
Trading rose to about 5 times the usual hourly amount.
12h ago
Trading rose to about 5 times the usual hourly amount.
13h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to “Yes” if Howard Lutnick ceases to be the US Secretary of Commerce for any period of time between market creation…”
“The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.”
“An announcement of Lutnick's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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