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Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?

14% say yes

Prices last updated 6 minutes ago. They normally update every minute.

Up 2 points today.

Decided by official government/military statements plus a credible reporting, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 14¢ means about a 14% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: Houthi military forces enter any part of Aden, Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.14%
What has to happen
Houthi military forces enter any part of Aden, Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.86%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

In the event of genuine ambiguity, this market may remain open for three days after the specified date.

Price chart

Yes 14%No 86%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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The details

Rule note: the announcement countsNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Low (15/100)

settles on the official announcement

Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi military forces enter any part of Aden, Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.”
“The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.”
“If Houthi entry into Aden is not established by the end of the third calendar day, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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