Weather

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on November 9?

>99% say yes

Up 55 points today.

Decided by polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com, by November 9, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 99¢ means about a 99% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesThe weather event in the question happens and is officially reported.>99%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by November 9, 2026.
NoIt doesn’t happen.<1%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

The report the resolution source shows for a given observation time is the one that counts, whether or not it is marked as a correction (COR).

See all fine print

In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source.

Price chart

Yes >99%No <1%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price rose 4.7 points in about 15 minutes, from 94.6¢ to 99.3¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com4h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: needs formal signingSettled by polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com

Fine-print risk

Low (5/100)

settles on the date it takes effect

Official source: settlement runs on Named URL in rules: polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Press announcements or committee votes do not settle Yes; formal signing or enactment before the deadline is required. Deadline: Mon, Nov 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“Resolution is determined from the observations the resolution source shows for the observation date.”
“This market will resolve at the issuance of the first METAR observation for the station on the day following the observation date or by 11:59…”
“If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Big trades across all markets

Get notified when Pro opens.

One email when Pro opens, plus occasional product news. Unsubscribe anytime. Never shared or rented.