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Weather

Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 30?

>99% say yes

Up 68 points today.

Decided by polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com, by October 31, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price over 99¢ means more than a 99% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

  • YesThe weather event in the question happens and is officially reported.>99%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is yes by October 31, 2026.

  • NoIt doesn’t happen.<1%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

The report the resolution source shows for a given observation time is the one that counts, whether or not it is marked as a correction (COR).

See all fine print
  • In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source.
Price chart
-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: needs formal signingSettled by polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com
Fine-print risk
Low (5/100)
settles on the date it takes effect

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Named URL in rules: polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Press announcements or committee votes do not settle Yes; formal signing or enactment before the deadline is required. Deadline: Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 03:00 ET.

Source named: polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “Resolution is determined from the observations the resolution source shows for the observation date.”
  • “This market will resolve at the issuance of the first METAR observation for the station on the day following the observation date or by 11:59…”
  • “If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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