Weather

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on November 15?

>99% say yes

Up 96 points today.

Decided by official government website, by November 15, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price over 99¢ means more than a 99% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesThe weather event in the question happens and is officially reported.>99%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by November 15, 2026.
NoIt doesn’t happen.<1%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

Any revisions published after the Hong Kong Observatory's initial publication of data for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

See all fine print

That initial publication is the revisions cutoff.

Price chart

Yes >99%No <1%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price rose 4.9 points in about 15 minutes, from 93.6¢ to 98.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: weather.gov.hk11h ago
The price rose 5.1 points in about 15 minutes, from 93.3¢ to 98.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: weather.gov.hk11h ago
The price rose 30.1 points in about 15 minutes, from 66.4¢ to 96.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: weather.gov.hk12h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by weather.gov.hk

Fine-print risk

Low (0/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Official government website (weather.gov.hk). Publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Sun, Nov 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: weather.gov.hk (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 4 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 3 times the usual hourly amount.
4h ago
Trading rose to about 3 times the usual hourly amount.
5h ago
Trading rose to about 3 times the usual hourly amount.
5h ago
Trading rose to about 4 times the usual hourly amount.
10h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg.”
“In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this…”
“If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Big trades across all markets

Get notified when Pro opens.

One email when Pro opens, plus occasional product news. Unsubscribe anytime. Never shared or rented.