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US Elections

Will the Democrats fail to sweep the House and Senate and US gas hit $3.50 by the end of 2026?

<1% say yes

Down 2 points today.

Decided by major news reports, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Results can take until January 4, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price under 1¢ means less than a 1% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

  • YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.<1%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is yes by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

  • NoThe deadline passes without it happening.>99%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

What the news says

The source says Democrat Troy Jackson won the U.S. Senate seat in Maine on Wednesday, defeating incumbent Susan Collins. The Associated Press declared Jackson the winner at 1:02 a.m. EST.

Sources checked 4:52 AM ET

See sources (1)

News data from GDELT and publisher news feeds. AI summary in our own words. Read the original articles at the links.

The one trap

If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency.

See all fine print
  • If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated.
Price chart
-Yes chance

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View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Low (15/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “The option matching both results will resolve to "Yes", and all other options will resolve to "No".”
  • “This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of (1) whether the Democratic Party wins control of both the United States House of Representatives…”
  • “If either condition is not met at 10:00 AM ET, the price will be observed at the first time on that date at which both…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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