Geopolitics

France declares state of siege (martial law) by October 31, 2026?

<1% say yes

About the same as yesterday.

Decided by Official election authority, by April 3, 1955.

Polymarket lists October 31, 2026 as the end date, but the rules allow until April 3, 1955.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price under 1¢ means less than a 1% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (October 31, 2026), the answer is No. Yes wins if: A legally binding decree declaring a state of siege (état de siège) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM .

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.<1%
What has to happen
A legally binding decree declaring a state of siege (état de siège) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.>99%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by October 31, 2026.

Why the price is where it is

We haven’t found an official source explaining this yet.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart

Yes <1%No >99%

-Yes chance

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The details

Rule note: stated conditionSettled by legifrance.gouv.fr

Fine-print risk

Low (20/100)

Stated Condition

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Official election authority (legifrance.gouv.fr). Publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Settles on the condition as written with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Sun, Apr 3, 1955, 11:59 PM ET Deadline: Sun, Apr 3, 1955, 11:59 PM ET. If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback.

Source named: legifrance.gouv.fr (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of siege (état de siège) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of siege" (état de siège) as defined by Article 36 of the French Constitution and Articles L2121-1 to L2121-8 of the Defence Code (Code de la défense). Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of siege under Article 36 of the French Constitution will count. If the legal name of the state of siege changes but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify. A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify. A declaration of a state of emergency (état d'urgence) under Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955, a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire), the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, or the deployment or requisition of the armed forces for domestic security operations (e.g. Opération Sentinelle) without a decree declaring a state of siege will not count. Statements that a state of siege is being considered, or informal references to "martial law", will not count unless accompanied by a qualifying decree. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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