Other

Fourth Jensen Huang affair reported by December 31?

52% say yes

No price change recorded today yet.

Decided by Race calls by AP, Fox News, NBC, CNN, ABC, CBS, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 52¢ means about a 52% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.52%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.48%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart

Yes 52%No 48%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price rose 5.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 49.5¢ to 54.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC + CNN + ABC + CBS race calls2h ago
The price fell 3.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 55.5¢ to 52.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC + CNN + ABC + CBS race calls3h ago
The price rose 3.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 52.5¢ to 55.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC + CNN + ABC + CBS race calls4h ago
The price rose 7.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 44¢ to 51.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC + CNN + ABC + CBS race calls5h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: first number counts, no revisionsSettled by AP + Fox News + NBC + CNN + ABC + CBS race calls

Fine-print risk

Low (20/100)

settles on the first published number

Official source: Settles on AP, Fox News, NBC, CNN, ABC and CBS race calls.
Fine print: Settles strictly on the initial agency release. Later benchmark revisions will not flip the outcome. Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: AP + Fox News + NBC + CNN + ABC + CBS race calls (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 11 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 3 times the usual hourly amount.
30m ago
Trading rose to about 3 times the usual hourly amount.
60m ago
Trading rose to about 5 times the usual hourly amount.
4h ago
Trading rose to about 5 times the usual hourly amount.
5h ago
Trading rose to about 4 times the usual hourly amount.
6h ago
Trading rose to about 5 times the usual hourly amount.
7h ago
Trading rose to about 4 times the usual hourly amount.
8h ago
Trading rose to about 4 times the usual hourly amount.
8h ago
Trading rose to about 6 times the usual hourly amount.
9h ago
Trading rose to about 6 times the usual hourly amount.
10h ago
Trading rose to about 4 times the usual hourly amount.
10h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a qualifying outlet publishes a qualifying report of…”
“The resolution source for this market will be reporting from the qualifying outlets; for acknowledgments, official information from Jensen Huang or his official or legal…”
“Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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