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Flávio Bolsonaro arrested before 2027?

7% say yes

No price change recorded today yet.

Decided by official government/military statements plus a credible reporting, by December 31, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 7¢ means about a 7% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (December 31, 2026), the answer is No. Yes wins if: Flávio Bolsonaro is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.7%
What has to happen
Flávio Bolsonaro is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.93%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by December 31, 2026.

The one trap

If someone disputes the result on Polymarket, UMA token holders vote to settle it. Kalshi settles by its own rulebook.

Price chart

Yes 7%No 93%

-Yes chance

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The details

Rule note: the event happening and being officially reportedNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

settles on the event happening and being officially reported

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the event happening and being officially reported, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge's decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as he is held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: - Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) - Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant - Being formally booked or processed following detention - Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station - Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with his attorney - Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention: - An arrest warrant being issued but not executed - Being questioned or interviewed without arrest - Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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