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US Elections

First Round Outright Winner in the GA-09 House Election?

74% say yes

Down 14 points today.

Decided by the election on November 3, 2026, using major news reports.

Results can take until March 31, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 74¢ means about a 74% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-09 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. Yes wins if: Any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-09 House election outright in the first round.

Possible results

  • Yes74%

    What has to happen

    Any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-09 House election outright in the first round.

  • NoIt doesn’t happen.26%

    What has to happen

    That doesn’t happen by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What the news says

The source says that Democrat Jon Ossoff defeated Republican Mike Collins in the Georgia Senate race. Republican groups supporting Collins reduced their campaign spending in mid-October.

Sources checked Nov 3, 10:41 PM ET

See sources (1)

News data from GDELT and publisher news feeds. AI summary in our own words. Read the original articles at the links.

The one trap

Polymarket goes by what major news outlets agree on. If that is unclear, it uses the official results.

See all fine print
  • Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.
Price chart
-Yes chance

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Recorded moves

  • The price fell 13.3 points in about 15 minutes, from 87.8¢ to 74.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus31m ago

  • The price fell 20.4 points in about 15 minutes, from 97.4¢ to 77¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus1h ago

  • The price rose 22.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 75¢ to 97¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus2h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Low (15/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Tue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-09 House election outright in the first round.”
  • “If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the…”
  • “If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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