Geopolitics

Will Russia win on 2026-11-12?

7% say Russia wins

Down 41 points today.

Decided by major news reports, by November 12, 2026, 10:00 AM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 7¢ means about a 7% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (November 12, 2026, 10:00 AM ET), the answer is No.

Possible results

UzbekistanUzbekistan wins.80%
What has to happen
Uzbekistan wins.
RussiaRussia wins.7%
What has to happen
Russia wins.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

The one trap

If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand.

See all fine print

If the game is canceled, does not start by Saturday, November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, the market settles as "No".

Price chart

Yes 7%No 93%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price fell 18 points in about 15 minutes, from 25.5¢ to 7.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Source: Credible-reporting consensus9m ago
The price fell 27.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 56.5¢ to 29.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Source: Credible-reporting consensus48m ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: 90 minutes only, a draw settles NoNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Low (15/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Only the first 90 minutes plus stoppage time count; extra time and penalties are ignored, so a draw after 90 minutes settles No on a team-to-win contract. Deadline: Thu, Nov 12, 2026, 10:00 AM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“If Russia wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".”
“If the game is canceled, does not start by Saturday, November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that…”
“If a result is awarded by Saturday, November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that determines this market's outcome, this market will resolve based on the…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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