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Fed & Rates

by October 2026 meeting?

<1% say yes

About the same as yesterday.

Decided by the Fed’s statement after its meeting (by January 28, 2027).

Polymarket lists January 28, 2027 as the end date, but the rules allow until October 28, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price under 1¢ means less than a 1% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

After its October 2026 meeting, the Federal Reserve announces whether it will change the interest .

Possible results

  • YesWhat the question describes actually happens.<1%

    What has to happen

    The upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for October 2026, currently scheduled for October 27-28.

  • NoIt doesn’t happen.>99%

    What has to happen

    That doesn’t happen by October 28, 2026.

The one trap

Polymarket rounds odd-sized changes up. If the Fed cut by 0.125%, Polymarket would count it as a 0.25% cut, but Kalshi might not.

See all fine print
  • If the Fed releases no statement by the end of its next scheduled meeting, Polymarket counts it as “No change”.
  • The result comes from the Federal Reserve’s own website. Trusted news reports can also be used if needed.
  • If the Fed changes rates at a surprise meeting before this one, that new rate becomes the starting point.
  • Only the 2:00 PM ET written statement counts. The press conference, the minutes and the date the new rate takes effect don’t.
  • Polymarket measures the change in the top of the Fed’s range. Kalshi’s contracts may look at the rate level instead, so in rare cases the two can settle differently.
  • If someone disputes the result on Polymarket, UMA token holders vote to settle it. Kalshi settles by its own rulebook.
Price chart
-Yes chance

View on PolymarketView on Kalshi

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsOfficial source: recent release
Fine-print risk
Low (20/100)
settles on the official announcement

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Federal Reserve Board / FOMC. Latest FED release on this topic: "Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement" (3h ago).
  • Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: FOMC statement scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026.

Recent official releases on this topic (FED)

Next official event: FOMC statement, Wed Dec 9, 2:00 PM ET

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

Polymarket (Fed Decision in October, event fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537): The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. This market resolves to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change is rounded up to the nearest 25 and resolves to the relevant bracket (for example, a cut or increase of 12.5 bps is considered 25 bps). Resolution source: the FOMC statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27 to 28, 2026 (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm) and https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market resolves to the "No change" bracket.

Kalshi

Kalshi (KXFEDDECISION / KXFED CFTC-certified contracts): Source Agency is the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Settles on the target federal funds rate upper bound (or specified basis-point change bracket) stated in the FOMC post-meeting implementation note and statement for the October 2026 meeting. Unlike Polymarket, Kalshi strikes settle on exact CFTC-certified numerical thresholds without rounding a 12.5 bps move up to 25 bps, and disputes are governed by Kalshi Exchange Rules rather than UMA token-holder voting.

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