Geopolitics

FAA outage attributed to Iran?

1% say yes

No price change recorded today yet.

Decided by official government/military statements plus a credible reporting, by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 1¢ means about a 1% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: The U.S.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.1%
What has to happen
The U.S.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.99%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

Once a qualifying attribution is made, the market settles as "Yes" regardless of any later retraction, Iranian denial, or the outcome of legal proceedings.

Price chart

Yes 1%No 99%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Low (15/100)

settles on the official announcement

Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Mon, Nov 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 9 smaller price or trading-volume entries

This market joined the most traded markets.
13h ago
Trading rose to about 8 times the usual hourly amount.
14h ago
Trading rose to about 10 times the usual hourly amount.
14h ago
Trading rose to about 6 times the usual hourly amount.
15h ago
Trading rose to about 7 times the usual hourly amount.
15h ago
Trading rose to about 12 times the usual hourly amount.
16h ago
Trading rose to about 14 times the usual hourly amount.
16h ago
Trading rose to about 16 times the usual hourly amount.
17h ago
Trading rose to about 12 times the usual hourly amount.
17h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government officially attributes the November 13, 2026, FAA outage to Iran between market creation and November…”
“The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements and publications from the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also…”
“Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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