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FAA outage attributed to hack?

2% say yes

No price change recorded today yet.

Decided by official government/military statements plus a credible reporting, by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 2¢ means about a 2% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: The U.S.

Possible results

  • YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.2%

    What has to happen

    The U.S.

  • NoThe deadline passes without it happening.98%

    What has to happen

    That doesn’t happen by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

Once a qualifying attribution is made, the market settles as "Yes" regardless of any later retraction or the outcome of legal proceedings.

Price chart
-Yes chance

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Recorded moves

  • The price fell 3.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 5.2¢ to 2.1¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus13m ago

  • The price fell 3 points in about 15 minutes, from 8¢ to 5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus15h ago

  • The price fell 4.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 10.5¢ to 6.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus15h ago

  • The price fell 5 points in about 15 minutes, from 12.5¢ to 7.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus16h ago

  • The price rose 3.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 9.5¢ to 13¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus17h ago

  • The price fell 8 points in about 15 minutes, from 18.5¢ to 10.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus17h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Low (15/100)
settles on the official announcement
  • Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Mon, Nov 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 2 smaller price or trading-volume entries

  • Trading rose to about 7 times the usual hourly amount.

    14h ago

  • Trading rose to about 9 times the usual hourly amount.

    14h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government officially attributes the November 13, 2026, FAA outage to a hack between market creation and…”
  • “The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements and publications from the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also…”
  • “Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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