Other

Will it be confirmed that maintenance, an upgrade or another planned change to an FAA or contractor system caused the FAA's nationwide ground stop on November 13?

98% say yes

No price change recorded today yet.

Decided by official government/military statements plus a credible reporting, by November 13, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 98¢ means about a 98% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (November 13, 2026), the answer is No. Yes wins if: The U.S.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.98%
What has to happen
The U.S.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.2%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by November 13, 2026.

The one trap

Once a qualifying attribution is made, the relevant market settles as "Yes" regardless of any later retraction or the outcome of legal proceedings.

Price chart

Yes 98%No 2%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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The details

Rule note: the announcement countsNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Low (15/100)

settles on the official announcement

Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Fri, Nov 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“Each market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government officially attributes the ground stop to the listed cause within this timeframe.”
“This market will resolve according to the cause or causes to which the U.S. government officially attributes the FAA's nationwide ground stop on November 13…”
“Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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