Ethereum

Ethereum Up or Down on November 9?

96% say Down

Down 46 points today.

Decided by Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candles, by November 9, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 96¢ means about a 96% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

The price is read from Binance (the ETH/USDT pair), at the time named in the rules.

Possible results

UpThe result is “Up”.4%
What has to happen
The "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Nov 8 '26 12:00 PM ET (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Nov 9 '26 12:00 ET candle.
DownThe result is “Down”.96%
What has to happen
The "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Nov 8 '26 12:00 PM ET (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Nov 9 '26 12:00 ET candle.

The one trap

It uses the Binance price at 12:00 ET, not prices from other exchanges or websites.

See all fine print

If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.

Price chart

Up 4%Down 96%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price rose 3 points in about 15 minutes, from 7.5¢ to 10.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: binance.com (1m candle)3h ago
The price fell 3 points in about 15 minutes, from 10.5¢ to 7.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: binance.com (1m candle)4h ago
The price fell 8.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 17.5¢ to 9.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: binance.com (1m candle)6h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: only the close countsSettled by binance.com (1m candle)

Fine-print risk

Low (0/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored. Updates every minute (exchange candles). No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Intraday touches do not count. Only the exact closing snapshot at the cutoff timestamp settles this contract. Deadline: Mon, Nov 9, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Source named: binance.com (1m candle) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 3 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 3 times the usual hourly amount.
4h ago
Trading rose to about 5 times the usual hourly amount.
5h ago
Trading rose to about 4 times the usual hourly amount.
5h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top…”
“If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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