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Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 7 to November 9, 2026?

32% say yes

Up 12 points today.

Decided by Polymarket X Tracker "Post Counter", by November 9, 2026, 12:00 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 32¢ means about a 32% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

  • YesThe count or result in the question is what actually happens.32%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is yes by November 9, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

  • NoIt doesn’t happen.68%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Price chart
-Yes chance

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Recorded moves

  • The price rose 4.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 25.5¢ to 29.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: xtracker.polymarket.com31m ago

  • The price rose 6.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 17.5¢ to 24¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: xtracker.polymarket.com2h ago

  • The price fell 3 points in about 15 minutes, from 23¢ to 20¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: xtracker.polymarket.com3h ago

  • The price rose 3.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 19.5¢ to 23¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: xtracker.polymarket.com3h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: tracker count onlySettled by xtracker.polymarket.com
Fine-print risk
Low (0/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on Polymarket X Tracker "Post Counter" (xtracker.polymarket.com); X itself only as a secondary source. Counts posts in near real time. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Only the venue tracker count inside the stated window settles this; the raw count on the X profile does not. Deadline: Counting window: Sat, Nov 7, 2026, 12:00 PM ET → Mon, Nov 9, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Source named: xtracker.polymarket.com (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 1 smaller price or trading-volume entries

  • Trading rose to about 5 times the usual hourly amount.

    2h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from November 7 12:00 PM ET to November 9…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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