Culture

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?

10% say yes

Up 2 points today.

Decided by Polymarket X Tracker "Post Counter", by November 4, 2026, 12:00 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 10¢ means about a 10% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesThe count or result in the question is what actually happens.10%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by November 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
NoIt doesn’t happen.90%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Price chart

Yes 10%No 90%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price fell 4.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 15¢ to 10.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: xtracker.polymarket.com45m ago
The price rose 3.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 8¢ to 11.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: xtracker.polymarket.com2h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: tracker count onlySettled by xtracker.polymarket.com

Fine-print risk

Low (0/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Polymarket X Tracker "Post Counter" (xtracker.polymarket.com); X itself only as a secondary source. Counts posts in near real time. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Only the venue tracker count inside the stated window settles this; the raw count on the X profile does not. Deadline: Counting window: Mon, Nov 2, 2026, 12:00 PM ET → Wed, Nov 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Source named: xtracker.polymarket.com (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 1 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 3 times the usual hourly amount.
14m ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from November 2 12:00 PM ET to November 4…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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