Culture

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from November 14 to November 16, 2026?

Settled: No

Decided by Polymarket X Tracker "Post Counter"

Result posted: Sun Nov 15, 5:02 AM

Trading stopped on Polymarket: Sun Nov 15, 5:02 AM ET

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesThe count or result in the question is what actually happens.No
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by November 16, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
NoIt doesn’t happen.Yes
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: tracker count onlySettled by xtracker.polymarket.com

Fine-print risk

Low (0/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Polymarket X Tracker "Post Counter" (xtracker.polymarket.com); X itself only as a secondary source. Counts posts in near real time. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Only the venue tracker count inside the stated window settles this; the raw count on the X profile does not. Deadline: Counting window: Sat, Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 PM ET → Mon, Nov 16, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Source named: xtracker.polymarket.com (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 11 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 6 times the usual hourly amount.
11h ago
Trading rose to about 6 times the usual hourly amount.
11h ago
Trading rose to about 6 times the usual hourly amount.
12h ago
Trading rose to about 4 times the usual hourly amount.
13h ago
Trading rose to about 4 times the usual hourly amount.
13h ago
Trading rose to about 4 times the usual hourly amount.
14h ago
Trading rose to about 7 times the usual hourly amount.
17h ago
Trading rose to about 8 times the usual hourly amount.
17h ago
Trading rose to about 5 times the usual hourly amount.
18h ago
Trading rose to about 6 times the usual hourly amount.
18h ago
Trading rose to about 4 times the usual hourly amount.
19h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from November 14 12:00 PM ET to November 16…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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