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Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from November 12 to November 14, 2026?

15% say yes

Up 7 points today.

Decided by Polymarket X Tracker "Post Counter", by November 14, 2026, 12:00 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 15¢ means about a 15% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

  • YesThe count or result in the question is what actually happens.15%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is yes by November 14, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

  • NoIt doesn’t happen.85%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Price chart
-Yes chance

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Recorded moves

  • The price fell 20.4 points in about 15 minutes, from 33.1¢ to 12.7¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: xtracker.polymarket.com12m ago

  • The price rose 3.4 points in about 15 minutes, from 24.7¢ to 28.1¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: xtracker.polymarket.com4h ago

  • The price fell 8.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 30.5¢ to 22.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: xtracker.polymarket.com5h ago

  • The price rose 7.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 15¢ to 21.9¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: xtracker.polymarket.com8h ago

  • The price fell 34.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 52.2¢ to 17.6¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: xtracker.polymarket.com8h ago

  • The price rose 13.9 points in about 15 minutes, from 38.5¢ to 52.4¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: xtracker.polymarket.com10h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: tracker count onlySettled by xtracker.polymarket.com
Fine-print risk
Low (0/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on Polymarket X Tracker "Post Counter" (xtracker.polymarket.com); X itself only as a secondary source. Counts posts in near real time. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Only the venue tracker count inside the stated window settles this; the raw count on the X profile does not. Deadline: Counting window: Thu, Nov 12, 2026, 12:00 PM ET → Sat, Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Source named: xtracker.polymarket.com (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 2 smaller price or trading-volume entries

  • Trading rose to about 5 times the usual hourly amount.

    7h ago

  • Trading rose to about 13 times the usual hourly amount.

    9h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from November 12 12:00 PM ET to November 14…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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