Esports

UPGRADE vs Butterfly: who will win?

>99% say Butterfly wins

Down 30 points today.

Match time has passed. Waiting for the official result.

If postponed, it can stay open until Nov 25, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price over 99¢ means more than a 99% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US. Sports event contracts are restricted or under legal challenge in several US states. Check your state’s law and the venue’s terms.

The short version

UPGRADE and Butterfly play a Counter-Strike match, scheduled for November 11, 2026 at 4:00 AM .

Possible results

UPGRADEUPGRADE wins.<1%
What has to happen
UPGRADE win Map 2 against Butterfly.
ButterflyButterfly wins.>99%
What has to happen
Butterfly win Map 2 against UPGRADE.

The one trap

If a player pulls out before the match starts (a walkover), the market settles 50-50.

See all fine print

If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 2.
If Map 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50.

Price chart

UPGRADE <1%Butterfly >99%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the official resultSettled by hltv.org

Fine-print risk

Low (5/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on hltv.org official match results (credible reporting only if not published within 2 hours). Posts final results after the match. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Settles on the official final result as played. If postponed, it must be rescheduled to start by Nov 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it settles 50-50. Cancellations follow the stated fallback. Deadline: Wed, Nov 11, 2026, 4:00 AM ET.

Source named: hltv.org (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org.”
“If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 25, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar…”
“If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Big trades across all markets

Get notified when Pro opens.

One email when Pro opens, plus occasional product news. Unsubscribe anytime. Never shared or rented.