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Esports

UPGRADE vs Butterfly: who will win?

90% say Butterfly wins

Down 41 points today.

Match time has passed. Waiting for the official result.

If postponed, it can stay open until Nov 25, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 90¢ means about a 90% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US. Sports event contracts are restricted or under legal challenge in several US states. Check your state’s law and the venue’s terms.

The short version

UPGRADE and Butterfly play a Counter-Strike match at the NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage, scheduled for November 11, 2026 at 4:00 AM .

Possible results

  • UPGRADEUPGRADE wins.10%

    What has to happen

    UPGRADE win the match against Butterfly.

  • ButterflyButterfly wins.90%

    What has to happen

    Butterfly win the match against UPGRADE.

The one trap

If a team pulls out before the match starts (a walkover), the market settles 50-50.

See all fine print
  • If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, the market settles as 50-50.
  • If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 25, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of November 11, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET).
Price chart
-Yes chance

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Recorded moves

  • The price fell 18 points in about 15 minutes, from 25.5¢ to 7.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: hltv.org10m ago

  • The price fell 24 points in about 15 minutes, from 35¢ to 11¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: hltv.org54m ago

  • The price rose 5.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 35.5¢ to 40.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: hltv.org2h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the official resultSettled by hltv.org
Fine-print risk
Low (10/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on hltv.org official match results (credible reporting only if not published within 2 hours). Posts final results after the match. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles on the official final result as played. If postponed, it must be rescheduled to start by Nov 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it settles 50-50. Cancellations follow the stated fallback. Deadline: Wed, Nov 11, 2026, 4:00 AM ET.

Source named: hltv.org (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org.”
  • “If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 25, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar…”
  • “If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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