Esports

Butterfly vs megoshort: who will win?

>99% say Butterfly wins

Up 50 points today.

Match time has passed. Waiting for the official result.

If postponed, it can stay open until Nov 19, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price over 99¢ means more than a 99% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US. Sports event contracts are restricted or under legal challenge in several US states. Check your state’s law and the venue’s terms.

The short version

Butterfly and megoshort play a Counter-Strike match, scheduled for November 5, 2026 at 1:00 PM .

Possible results

ButterflyButterfly wins.>99%
What has to happen
Butterfly win Map 2 against megoshort.
megoshortmegoshort wins.<1%
What has to happen
Megoshort win Map 2 against Butterfly.

The one trap

If a player pulls out before the match starts (a walkover), the market settles 50-50.

See all fine print

If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 2.
If Map 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50.

Price chart

Butterfly >99%megoshort <1%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price rose 56.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 43.5¢ to 100¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: hltv.org46m ago
The price fell 38.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 69.5¢ to 31¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: hltv.org1h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the official resultSettled by hltv.org

Fine-print risk

Low (5/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on hltv.org official match results (credible reporting only if not published within 2 hours). Posts final results after the match. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Settles on the official final result as played. If postponed, it must be rescheduled to start by Nov 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it settles 50-50. Cancellations follow the stated fallback. Deadline: Thu, Nov 5, 2026, 1:00 PM ET.

Source named: hltv.org (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 1 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 16 times the usual hourly amount.
16m ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org.”
“If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 19, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar…”
“If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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