Congress & Courts

Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?

8% say yes

Up 2 points today.

Decided by Federal Register / Congress.gov, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 8¢ means about an 8% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: Crypto market structure legislation is enacted into U.S.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.8%
What has to happen
Crypto market structure legislation is enacted into U.S.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.92%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart

Yes 8%No 92%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: needs formal signingSettled by .gov source: federalregister.gov

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

settles on the formal signing

Official source: settlement runs on Federal Register / Congress.gov. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Press announcements or committee votes do not settle Yes; formal signing or enactment before the deadline is required. Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Next official event: Federal Register publication, see the official schedule

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to “Yes” if crypto market structure legislation is enacted into U.S. federal law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.”
“Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.””

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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