US Elections

Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?

>99% say yes

Up 51 points today.

Decided by major news reports, by December 31, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price over 99¢ means more than a 99% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (December 31, 2026), the answer is No. Yes wins if: Christine Lagarde ceases to be the President of the European Central Bank for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.>99%
What has to happen
Christine Lagarde ceases to be the President of the European Central Bank for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.<1%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by December 31, 2026.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart

Yes >99%No <1%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price rose 3.1 points in about 15 minutes, from 95.9¢ to 99¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Source: Credible-reporting consensus2h ago

View on Polymarket

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: needs formal signingNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Medium (35/100)

settles on the date it takes effect

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Press announcements or committee votes do not settle Yes; formal signing or enactment before the deadline is required. Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 2 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading picked up (about 13 times the usual hourly amount).
38m ago
Trading picked up (about 13 times the usual hourly amount).
1h ago

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Christine Lagarde ceases to be the President of the European Central Bank for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lagarde's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Christine Lagarde and the European Central Bank; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Big trades across all markets