Geopolitics

China ballistic missile launch by December 31?

Settled: Yes

Decided by the official result, under the rules

Result posted: Fri Nov 13, 8:30 AM

Trading stopped on Polymarket: Fri Nov 13, 8:30 AM ET

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.Yes
What has to happen
China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.No
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

If someone disputes the result on Polymarket, UMA token holders vote to settle it. Kalshi settles by its own rulebook.

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenNo source named

Fine-print risk

Medium (35/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on No resolution source named in the rules text. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

No resolution source named in the rules

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 1 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 5 times the usual hourly amount.
1h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.”
“Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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