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Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?

26% say yes

Down 7 points today.

Decided by major news reports, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 26¢ means about a 26% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: The listed actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Possible results

  • YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.26%

    What has to happen

    The listed actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

  • NoThe deadline passes without it happening.74%

    What has to happen

    That doesn’t happen by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, the market settles as "No Bond chosen".

Price chart
-Yes chance

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Recorded moves

  • The price rose 3.1 points in about 15 minutes, from 22.1¢ to 25.2¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus2h ago

  • The price fell 3.1 points in about 15 minutes, from 26.9¢ to 23.9¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus6h ago

  • The price rose 4.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 22.9¢ to 26.9¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus6h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Low (15/100)
settles on the official announcement
  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM…”
  • “This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter.”
  • “Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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