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Blue tsunami in 2026?

97% say yes

Up 27 points today.

Decided by major news reports, by January 4, 2027, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 97¢ means about a 97% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (January 4, 2027, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No.

Possible results

  • YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.97%

    What has to happen

    Both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections: - Democrats have a seat count of 235 or more in the House - Democrats have a seat count of 51 or more in the Senate Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

  • NoThe deadline passes without it happening.3%

    What has to happen

    That doesn’t happen by January 4, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

See all fine print
  • If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate or House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year.
  • If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
Price chart
-Yes chance

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Recorded moves

  • The price rose 6.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 88.5¢ to 95¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus1h ago

  • The price rose 9.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 79.5¢ to 88.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus2h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Low (15/100)
settles on the official announcement
  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Mon, Jan 4, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 2 smaller price or trading-volume entries

  • Trading rose to about 6 times the usual hourly amount.

    5m ago

  • Trading rose to about 9 times the usual hourly amount.

    35m ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:”
  • “If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat…”
  • “Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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