MarketWeaver
Log inSign up

Bitcoin

Bitcoin Up or Down on November 5?

58% say Down

Down 9 points today.

Decided by Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles, by November 5, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 58¢ means about a 58% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

The price is read from Binance (the BTC/USDT pair), at the time named in the rules.

Possible results

  • UpThe result is “Up”.42%

    What has to happen

    The "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Nov 4 '26 12:00 PM ET (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Nov 5 '26 12:00 ET candle.

  • DownThe result is “Down”.58%

    What has to happen

    The "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Nov 4 '26 12:00 PM ET (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Nov 5 '26 12:00 ET candle.

The one trap

It uses the Binance price at 12:00 ET, not prices from other exchanges or websites.

See all fine print
  • If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.
Price chart
-Yes chance

Loading...

Recorded moves

  • The price fell 10.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 52¢ to 41.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: binance.com (1m candle)4m ago

  • The price rose 8.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 40.5¢ to 49¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: binance.com (1m candle)51m ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: only the close countsSettled by binance.com (1m candle)
Fine-print risk
Low (0/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored. Updates every minute (exchange candles). No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Intraday touches do not count. Only the exact closing snapshot at the cutoff timestamp settles this contract. Deadline: Thu, Nov 5, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Source named: binance.com (1m candle) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top…”
  • “If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Big trades across all markets

Get notified when Pro opens.

One email when Pro opens, plus occasional product news. Unsubscribe anytime. Never shared or rented.

By joining you agree to our Privacy Policy.