Fed & Rates

Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ after the October 2026 meeting?

<1% say yes

About the same as yesterday.

Decided by Bank of Japan official website, by October 30, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price under 1¢ means less than a 1% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesWhat the question describes actually happens.<1%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by October 30, 2026.
NoIt doesn’t happen.>99%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

Polymarket rounds odd-sized changes up. If the Bank of Japan moved by 0.125%, Polymarket would count it as a 0.25% move.

See all fine print

If the Bank of Japan releases no statement by the end of its next scheduled meeting, Polymarket counts it as “No change”.
The result comes from the Bank of Japan’s own website. Trusted news reports can also be used if needed.

Price chart

Yes <1%No >99%

-Yes chance

View on Polymarket

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsSettled by Bank of Japan official website

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

settles on the official announcement

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Bank of Japan official website (boj.or.jp); credible reporting may also be used. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Fri, Oct 30, 2026 (time zone not stated).

Source named: Bank of Japan official website (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

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