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Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

.gov source: federalreserve.gov · End date Oct 29, 8:00 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders give Yes about 1% on “Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting”.

It dipped 0.8 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders.

Low surprise risk: the Fed’s 2:00 PM ET announcement on Oct 28 settles it.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsSettled by .gov source: federalreserve.gov
Fine-print risk
Low (20/100)
Announced

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Federal Reserve Board / FOMC. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: FOMC statement scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026. Polymarket measures the CHANGE in the UPPER BOUND vs. the pre-meeting level, with round-up-to-25 bps.

Next official event: FOMC statement, Wed Oct 28, 2:00 PM ET

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price history and every recorded move here.

See Pro

Fed interest-rate decision: October 27 to 28, 2026 FOMC meeting

5-point rule check

Polymarket ↔ Kalshi

.gov source: federalreserve.gov
Fine-print risk: Low (20/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Low 20
1.
Who settles it (official source)
FOMC post-meeting statement (Federal Reserve Board) · https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
2.
Deadline and time zone
FOMC statement scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026; Polymarket market page displays endDate 2026-10-29T03:59:00Z (11:59 PM ET Oct 28). America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
AnnouncedFOMC statement release (not the press conference, minutes, or effective date of the new range).
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
Polymarket: no statement by the end date of the next scheduled meeting → resolves "No change". Changes not shown in the options are rounded UP to the nearest 25 bps. Inter-meeting (unscheduled) moves before Oct 27 change the "prior to the meeting" baseline.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Polymarket measures the CHANGE in the UPPER BOUND vs. the pre-meeting level, with round-up-to-25 bps; Kalshi strikes may reference the target level/range directly. A 12.5 bp or inter-meeting move can settle the two venues differently. Polymarket disputes go to UMA token-holder voting; Kalshi settles under its CFTC-certified contract terms.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

Polymarket (Fed Decision in October, event fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537): The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. This market resolves to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change is rounded up to the nearest 25 and resolves to the relevant bracket (for example, a cut or increase of 12.5 bps is considered 25 bps). Resolution source: the FOMC statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27 to 28, 2026 (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm) and https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market resolves to the "No change" bracket.

Kalshi

Kalshi (KXFEDDECISION / KXFED CFTC-certified contracts): Source Agency is the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Settles on the target federal funds rate upper bound (or specified basis-point change bracket) stated in the FOMC post-meeting implementation note and statement for the October 2026 meeting. Unlike Polymarket, Kalshi strikes settle on exact CFTC-certified numerical thresholds without rounding a 12.5 bps move up to 25 bps, and disputes are governed by Kalshi Exchange Rules rather than UMA token-holder voting.

Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?: resolution rules & settlement traps · MarketWeaver