Other

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?

7% say yes

Up 3 points today.

Decided by portwatch.imf.org, by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 7¢ means about a 7% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.7%
What has to happen
IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.93%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.

See all fine print

Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying.

Price chart

Yes 7%No 93%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by portwatch.imf.org

Fine-print risk

Low (0/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Named URL in rules: portwatch.imf.org. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Mon, Nov 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: portwatch.imf.org (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait…”
“The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.”
“Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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