Tennis

Vrbensky vs Ursu: who will win?

Settled: Michael Vrbensky

Result posted: Sun Nov 15, 1:31 PM

Trading stopped on Polymarket: Sun Nov 15, 1:31 PM ET

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US. Sports event contracts are restricted or under legal challenge in several US states. Check your state’s law and the venue’s terms.

The short version

Michael Vrbensky and Vadym Ursu play a tennis match in Helsinki, scheduled for November 15, 2026 at 5:10 AM ET.

Possible results

Michael VrbenskyMichael Vrbensky wins and moves on.Yes
What has to happen
Michael Vrbensky advances against Vadym Ursu.
Vadym UrsuVadym Ursu wins and moves on.No
What has to happen
Vadym Ursu advances against Michael Vrbensky.

The one trap

If the match is canceled, ends in a tie, or still has no winner by November 29, 2026, the market settles 50-50 and every share pays 50¢.

See all fine print

If a player stops partway through (retires), or is defaulted or disqualified, the player who moves on wins the market.
If a player pulls out before the match starts (a walkover), the market settles 50-50.
The official result comes from the ATP Tour. Trusted news reports can also be used.

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the official resultSettled by ATP official

Fine-print risk

Low (10/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on ATP official results; credible reporting as a last resort. Posts the final result after the game. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Settles on the official final result as played. Cancellations follow the stated fallback. Deadline: Sun, Nov 15, 2026, 5:10 AM ET.

Source named: ATP official (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 3 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 18 times the usual hourly amount.
5h ago
Trading rose to about 20 times the usual hourly amount.
6h ago
Trading rose to about 22 times the usual hourly amount.
6h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour.”
“If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 29, 2026, 11:59…”
“If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Big trades across all markets

Get notified when Pro opens.

One email when Pro opens, plus occasional product news. Unsubscribe anytime. Never shared or rented.