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Tennis

Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Paris, France?

56% say Carlos Alcaraz wins

Up 22 points today.

Decided when a champion is named, by November 8, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 56¢ means about a 56% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US. Sports event contracts are restricted or under legal challenge in several US states. Check your state’s law and the venue’s terms.

The short version

It stays open until the season or tournament has a winner.

Possible results

  • Carlos AlcarazCarlos Alcaraz wins.56%

    What has to happen

    Carlos Alcaraz wins, under the rules.

  • Ben SheltonBen Shelton wins.12%

    What has to happen

    Ben Shelton wins, under the rules.

  • Tommy PaulTommy Paul wins.9%

    What has to happen

    Tommy Paul wins, under the rules.

  • Lorenzo MusettiLorenzo Musetti wins.8%

    What has to happen

    Lorenzo Musetti wins, under the rules.

Show 8 more results
  • Arthur FilsArthur Fils wins.6%

    What has to happen

    Arthur Fils wins, under the rules.

  • Taylor FritzTaylor Fritz wins.6%

    What has to happen

    Taylor Fritz wins, under the rules.

  • Casper RuudCasper Ruud wins.5%

    What has to happen

    Casper Ruud wins, under the rules.

  • Rinky HijikataRinky Hijikata wins.5%

    What has to happen

    Rinky Hijikata wins, under the rules.

  • Luca Van AsscheLuca Van Assche wins.4%

    What has to happen

    Luca Van Assche wins, under the rules.

  • Jan-Lennard StruffJan-Lennard Struff wins.4%

    What has to happen

    Jan-Lennard Struff wins, under the rules.

  • Tomas Martin EtcheverryTomas Martin Etcheverry wins.3%

    What has to happen

    Tomas Martin Etcheverry wins, under the rules.

  • Ignacio BuseIgnacio Buse wins.3%

    What has to happen

    Ignacio Buse wins, under the rules.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

The one trap

If a player who is not listed wins the 2026 Paris, France Men’s Singles Tournament, the market settles as "Other".

See all fine print
  • If the 2026 Paris, France Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after November 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, the market settles as "Other".
Price chart
-Yes chance

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View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the official resultSettled by ATP official
Fine-print risk
Low (5/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on ATP official results; credible reporting as a last resort. Posts the final result after the game. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles on the official final result as played. Cancellations follow the stated fallback. Deadline: Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: ATP official (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “The primary resolution source will be official information from ATP (https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.”
  • “If the 2026 Paris, France Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after November 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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