Tennis

Norrie vs Cerundolo: who will win?

>99% say Cameron Norrie wins

Up 65 points today.

Match time has passed. Waiting for the official result.

Polymarket lists November 3, 2026 as the end date, but the rules allow until November 10, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price over 99¢ means more than a 99% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US. Sports event contracts are restricted or under legal challenge in several US states. Check your state’s law and the venue’s terms.

The short version

Cameron Norrie and Francisco Cerundolo play a tennis match at the Erste Bank Open, scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 5:00 AM .

Possible results

Cameron NorrieCameron Norrie wins and moves on.>99%
What has to happen
Cameron Norrie advances against Francisco Cerundolo.
Francisco CerundoloFrancisco Cerundolo wins and moves on.<1%
What has to happen
Francisco Cerundolo advances against Cameron Norrie.

Why the price is where it is

We haven’t found an official source explaining this yet.

The one trap

If the match is canceled, ends in a tie, or still has no winner by November 10, 2026, the market settles 50-50 and every share pays 50¢.

See all fine print

If a player stops partway through (retires), or is defaulted or disqualified, the player who moves on wins the market.
If a player pulls out before the match starts (a walkover), the market settles 50-50.
The official result comes from the ATP Tour. Trusted news reports can also be used.

Price chart

Cameron Norrie >99%Francisco Cerundolo <1%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price rose 40.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 55.5¢ to 95.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: ATP official40m ago

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The details

Rule note: full game including overtimeSettled by ATP official

Fine-print risk

Low (10/100)

Match / Game Final

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on ATP official results; credible reporting as a last resort. Posts the final result after the game. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Settles on the official final result as played, overtime included. Postponed games stay open until completed; cancellations follow the stated fallback. Deadline: Tue, Oct 27, 2026, 5:00 AM ET (scheduled start). Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (see rules) and cancellation handling (per the rules vs. void/refund on sportsbooks and Kalshi's own contract terms).

Source named: ATP official (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 1 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Contract moved +2.4 points in 15m (97.5¢ → 100.0¢); last-hour volume 16.0× hourly average; contract does not name an official .gov resolution source; spread 0.1¢; depth ±5¢ $216.3k bid / $0 ask.
10m ago

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market refers to the tennis match between Cameron Norrie and Francisco Cerundolo in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Cameron Norrie' if Cameron Norrie advances against Francisco Cerundolo. This market will resolve to 'Francisco Cerundolo' if Francisco Cerundolo advances against Cameron Norrie. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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