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Tennis

Norrie vs Arnaldi: who will win?

85% say Cameron Norrie wins

Up 18 points today.

Match time has passed. Waiting for the official result.

If postponed, it can stay open until Nov 16, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 85¢ means about an 85% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US. Sports event contracts are restricted or under legal challenge in several US states. Check your state’s law and the venue’s terms.

The short version

Cameron Norrie and Matteo Arnaldi play a tennis match at the Rolex Paris Masters, scheduled for November 2, 2026 at 4:00 AM .

Possible results

  • Cameron NorrieCameron Norrie wins and moves on.85%

    What has to happen

    Cameron Norrie advances against Matteo Arnaldi.

  • Matteo ArnaldiMatteo Arnaldi wins and moves on.15%

    What has to happen

    Matteo Arnaldi advances against Cameron Norrie.

The one trap

If the match is canceled, ends in a tie, or still has no winner by November 16, 2026, the market settles 50-50 and every share pays 50¢.

See all fine print
  • If a player stops partway through (retires), or is defaulted or disqualified, the player who moves on wins the market.
  • If a player pulls out before the match starts (a walkover), the market settles 50-50.
  • The official result comes from the ATP Tour. Trusted news reports can also be used.
Price chart
-Yes chance

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Recorded moves

  • The price rose 6.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 78.5¢ to 84.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: ATP official55s ago

  • The price rose 12 points in about 15 minutes, from 68.5¢ to 80.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: ATP official34m ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the official resultSettled by ATP official
Fine-print risk
Low (10/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on ATP official results; credible reporting as a last resort. Posts the final result after the game. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles on the official final result as played. Cancellations follow the stated fallback. Deadline: Mon, Nov 2, 2026, 4:00 AM ET.

Source named: ATP official (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour.”
  • “If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 16, 2026, 11:59…”
  • “If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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