Tennis

Hardt vs Serna: who will win?

64% say Juan Manuel La Serna wins

Down 3 points today.

Match time has passed. Waiting for the official result.

Polymarket lists November 2, 2026 as the end date, but the rules allow until November 9, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 64¢ means about a 64% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US. Sports event contracts are restricted or under legal challenge in several US states. Check your state’s law and the venue’s terms.

The short version

Nick Hardt and Juan Manuel La Serna play a tennis match at the Guayaquil, scheduled for October 26, 2026 at 11:00 AM .

Possible results

Nick HardtNick Hardt wins and moves on.36%
What has to happen
Nick Hardt advances against Juan Manuel La Serna.
Juan Manuel La SernaJuan Manuel La Serna wins and moves on.64%
What has to happen
Juan Manuel La Serna advances against Nick Hardt.

The one trap

If the match is canceled, ends in a tie, or still has no winner by November 9, 2026, the market settles 50-50 and every share pays 50¢.

See all fine print

If a player stops partway through (retires), or is defaulted or disqualified, the player who moves on wins the market.
If a player pulls out before the match starts (a walkover), the market settles 50-50.
The official result comes from the ATP Tour. Trusted news reports can also be used.

Price chart

Nick Hardt 36%Juan Manuel La Serna 64%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price fell 47.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 83¢ to 35.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: ATP official14s ago
The price rose 24 points in about 15 minutes, from 35.5¢ to 59.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: ATP official1h ago

View on Polymarket

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: full game including overtimeSettled by ATP official

Fine-print risk

Low (10/100)

Match / Game Final

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on ATP official results; credible reporting as a last resort. Posts the final result after the game. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Settles on the official final result as played, overtime included. Postponed games stay open until completed; cancellations follow the stated fallback. Deadline: Mon, Oct 26, 2026, 11:00 AM ET (scheduled start). Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (see rules) and cancellation handling (per the rules vs. void/refund on sportsbooks and Kalshi's own contract terms).

Source named: ATP official (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market refers to the tennis match between Nick Hardt and Juan Manuel La Serna in the Guayaquil, originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nick Hardt' if Nick Hardt advances against Juan Manuel La Serna. This market will resolve to 'Juan Manuel La Serna' if Juan Manuel La Serna advances against Nick Hardt. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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