Tennis

Fils vs Machac: who will win?

62% say Arthur Fils wins

Down 3 points today.

Match time has passed. Waiting for the official result.

If postponed, it can stay open until Nov 18, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 62¢ means about a 62% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US. Sports event contracts are restricted or under legal challenge in several US states. Check your state’s law and the venue’s terms.

The short version

Arthur Fils and Tomas Machac play a tennis match at the Rolex Paris Masters, scheduled for November 4, 2026 at 4:00 AM .

Possible results

Arthur FilsArthur Fils wins and moves on.62%
What has to happen
Arthur Fils advances against Tomas Machac.
Tomas MachacTomas Machac wins and moves on.38%
What has to happen
Tomas Machac advances against Arthur Fils.

The one trap

If the match is canceled, ends in a tie, or still has no winner by November 18, 2026, the market settles 50-50 and every share pays 50¢.

See all fine print

If a player stops partway through (retires), or is defaulted or disqualified, the player who moves on wins the market.
If a player pulls out before the match starts (a walkover), the market settles 50-50.
The official result comes from the ATP Tour. Trusted news reports can also be used.

Price chart

Arthur Fils 62%Tomas Machac 38%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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The details

Rule note: the official resultSettled by ATP official

Fine-print risk

Low (10/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on ATP official results; credible reporting as a last resort. Posts the final result after the game. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Settles on the official final result as played. Cancellations follow the stated fallback. Deadline: Wed, Nov 4, 2026, 4:00 AM ET.

Source named: ATP official (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour.”
“If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 18, 2026, 11:59…”
“If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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