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Tennis

Alcaraz vs Tiafoe: who will win?

89% say Carlos Alcaraz wins

Up 1 point today.

Decided when the match ends. It is scheduled for November 16, 2026 at 8:00 AM .

If postponed, it can stay open until Nov 30, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 89¢ means about an 89% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US. Sports event contracts are restricted or under legal challenge in several US states. Check your state’s law and the venue’s terms.

The short version

Carlos Alcaraz and Frances Tiafoe play a tennis match at the ATP World Tour Finals, Ivan Lendl Group, scheduled for November 16, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET.

Possible results

  • Carlos AlcarazCarlos Alcaraz wins and moves on.89%

    What has to happen

    Carlos Alcaraz advances against Frances Tiafoe.

  • Frances TiafoeFrances Tiafoe wins and moves on.11%

    What has to happen

    Frances Tiafoe advances against Carlos Alcaraz.

The one trap

If the match is canceled, ends in a tie, or still has no winner by November 30, 2026, the market settles 50-50 and every share pays 50¢.

See all fine print
  • If a player stops partway through (retires), or is defaulted or disqualified, the player who moves on wins the market.
  • If a player pulls out before the match starts (a walkover), the market settles 50-50.
  • The official result comes from the ATP Tour. Trusted news reports can also be used.
Price chart
-Yes chance

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View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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The details

Rule note: the official resultSettled by ATP official
Fine-print risk
Low (10/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on ATP official results; credible reporting as a last resort. Posts the final result after the game. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles on the official final result as played. Cancellations follow the stated fallback. Deadline: Mon, Nov 16, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.

Source named: ATP official (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour.”
  • “If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 30, 2026, 11:59…”
  • “If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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