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Aryeh Deri out as Shas Leader by December 31?

13% say yes

Down 1 point today.

Decided by major news reports, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 13¢ means about a 13% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: Aryeh Deri ceases to be Leader of Shas for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Possible results

  • YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.13%

    What has to happen

    Aryeh Deri ceases to be Leader of Shas for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

  • NoThe deadline passes without it happening.87%

    What has to happen

    That doesn’t happen by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart
-Yes chance

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Recorded moves

  • The price rose 4.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 10.5¢ to 15¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus7h ago

  • The price rose 3.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 9.5¢ to 13¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus12h ago

  • The price fell 4.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 14¢ to 9.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus13h ago

  • The price fell 50 points in about 15 minutes, from 77¢ to 27¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus14h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: needs formal signingNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Medium (35/100)
settles on the date it takes effect
  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Press announcements or committee votes do not settle Yes; formal signing or enactment before the deadline is required. Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 1 smaller price or trading-volume entries

  • Trading rose to about 12 times the usual hourly amount.

    13h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aryeh Deri ceases to be Leader of Shas for any period of time between market creation and December…”
  • “The resolution source for this market will be official information from Aryeh Deri and Shas; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.”
  • “An announcement of Aryeh Deri's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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