Tech

Anthropic vs OpenAI: who will win?

92% say Anthropic wins

Up 2 points today.

Decided by the official final result.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 92¢ means about a 92% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

Anthropic and OpenAI play a match in higher valuation on December 31?.

Possible results

AnthropicAnthropic wins.92%
What has to happen
Anthropic beats OpenAI, under the rules.
OpenAIOpenAI wins.8%
What has to happen
OpenAI beats Anthropic, under the rules.

The one trap

If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027.

See all fine print

If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest available data.

Price chart

Anthropic 92%OpenAI 8%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: first number counts, no revisionsSettled by fe.secondmarket.com

Fine-print risk

Low (0/100)

settles on the first published number

Official source: settlement runs on Named URL in rules: fe.secondmarket.com. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Settles strictly on the initial agency release. Later benchmark revisions will not flip the outcome. Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 1:00 PM ET.

Source named: fe.secondmarket.com (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest available data.”
“If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until…”
“If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Big trades across all markets

Get notified when Pro opens.

One email when Pro opens, plus occasional product news. Unsubscribe anytime. Never shared or rented.