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Anthropic closing above $1.75T?

19% say yes

Down 6 points today.

Decided by Primary exchange's official listing page, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 19¢ means about a 19% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: The official for Anthropic's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title.

Possible results

  • YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.19%

    What has to happen

    The official closing price for Anthropic's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title.

  • NoThe deadline passes without it happening.81%

    What has to happen

    That doesn’t happen by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market settles as "No".

See all fine print
  • If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Price chart
-Yes chance

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Recorded moves

  • The price fell 3 points in about 15 minutes, from 22.5¢ to 19.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: Primary exchange listing12m ago

  • The price rose 4.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 18.5¢ to 22.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: Primary exchange listing52m ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: only the close countsSettled by Primary exchange listing
Fine-print risk
Low (5/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on Primary exchange's official listing page (official closing price × shares outstanding). Publishes the official close each trading day. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Intraday touches do not count. Only the exact closing snapshot at the cutoff timestamp settles this contract. Deadline: Fri, Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Primary exchange listing (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Anthropic's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified…”
  • “In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or…”
  • “If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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