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US Elections

Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Maine, and Texas?

<1% say yes

About the same as yesterday.

Decided by Race calls by AP, Fox News, NBC, by November 3, 2026.

Polymarket lists November 3, 2026 as the end date, but the rules allow until March 31, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price under 1¢ means less than a 1% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

  • YesWhat the question describes actually happens.<1%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is yes by November 3, 2026.

  • NoIt doesn’t happen.>99%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

Price chart
-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as written, time zone not statedSettled by AP + Fox News + NBC race calls
Fine-print risk
Medium (30/100)
settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, Yes orders vs No orders in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Race calls by AP, Fox News, NBC; official certification if they do not. Calls races on and after election night. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with no time zone stated for the deadline. Deadline: Tue, Nov 3, 2026 (time zone not stated).

Source named: AP + Fox News + NBC race calls (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 3 smaller price or trading-volume entries

  • Trading rose to about 9 times the usual hourly amount.

    8m ago

  • Trading rose to about 13 times the usual hourly amount.

    39m ago

  • Trading rose to about 8 times the usual hourly amount.

    1h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states…”
  • “This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas…”
  • “A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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